‘Godzilla’ El Niño on Its Way? Implications for Southern Africa examines the risks of a potentially severe El Niño event in late 2026 and into 2027, and what it could mean for agriculture, food security and livelihoods across Southern Africa. Forecasts point to higher temperatures, disrupted rainfall and increased risks of both drought and flooding, with Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe particularly exposed.
Authored by Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri, Justice Nyamangara, Mathews Mhuru, Marjolein Smit and Bruce M. Campbell, the brief draws on lessons from previous El Niño events to outline practical actions for governments, farmers and other food-system actors. These include strengthening early warning and early action, adapting input subsidies, promoting drought-tolerant crops and diversification, and improving preparedness for floods and droughts.
The brief also looks beyond the immediate event, highlighting the need for longer-term systems that can respond quickly to increasingly frequent and extreme climate shocks.
